Maynard Keynes: An Economist's Biography

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Based on an intimate knowledge of the subject and his environment, this biography of the most influential economist of the twentieth century traces Keynes' career on all its many levels. From academic Cambridge, to artistic Bloomsbury, to official Whitehall and to the City, we see the intellectual roots of Keynes' achievements and failures. We also see how he left his mark on the modern world.

Maynard Keynes: An Economist's Biography Review

Moggridge's(M) book on Keynes is similar in many respects to R.Skidelsky's three volume study of Keynes.Both give an excellent historical overview of the major events in Keynes's personal,professional,public and academic life.There are many interesting discussions of the interactions that occurred between Keynes and a host of famous people,politicians,philosophers and economists.The reader, who wants to buy a book on Keynes for his general library ,would do well to purchase this one volume study.On the other hand,M is not successfull in discussing and analyzing the many intellectual and scientific contributions that Keynes made to applied probability,statistics,decision theory and economics.A reader will be disappointed in this book if he wants a discussion of the intellectual heritage that Keynes bequeathed to humanity.The following is a list of the intellectual accomplishments of Keynes not mentioned by M.First,Keynes is the first scholar in history to propose an interval estimate approach for calculating an estimate of probability.Keynes gave a precise approximation technique based on the work of George Boole.These topics are covered in chapters 15 and 17 of the A Treatise on Probability(1921).Second, Keynes is the first scholar in history to provide a specific index to measure the weight of the evidence,w.w measures the completeness of the relevant ,potential evidence available to a decision maker in order to calculate an estimate of a probability.It is defined on the unit interval[0,1].Third, Keynes is the first scholar in history to specify a clearcut decision rule that incorporates non linear probability preferences and the weight(or ambiguity or uncertainty)of the evidence in his conventional coefficient of risk and weight,c.Fourth,Keynes is the first scholar in history to recognize the applied importance of Chebyshev's Inequality in specifying a lower bound to unreliable estimates based on misapplications of the normal probability distribution.Fifth,Keynes was one of the first to recognize the incorrect use of the normal probability distribution,both in the TP and in his debate with Tinbergen in 1939-1940 in the Economic Journal.These last two points still have not been understood by economists and financial analysts.Benoit Mandelbrot has presented overwhelming evidence that price movements in financial markets can't accurately be represented by a normal probability distribution.Like Tinbergen,economists keep preferring to be precisely wrong rather than generally right.Finally,Keynes specified a general theory of macroeconomics under conditions of both risk and uncertainty in his theory of effective demand presented in the GT in 1936.Letting w equal the money wage,p equalling the price level,w/p equalling the real wage,MPL equalling the marginal productivity of labor,MPC equalling the marginal propensity to spend on consumption goods,MPI equalling the marginal propensity to spend on investment goods(capital goods),Keynes derives the following:w/p=MPL/(MPC+MPI).This generalizes the classical and neoclassical theory that w/p=MPL.Classical and neoclassical theory(such as rational expectations,real business cycle theory,etc.)are special cases of Keynes's general theory that require MPC+MPI=1.Moggridge is advised to incorporate all of these intellectual accomplishments of Keynes in a revised edition.

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